As well as understanding these drivers, we need to consider the model accuracy (also known as model confidence or model skill) of the computer models that are used by the Bureau to predict the weather and climate. These models use hindcasts to understand the spread of historical events with 99 forecast model iterations run over a three-day period to determine the chance of a modelled forecast occurring. The time of year and location for which these forecasts are made can make a big difference.
Key message
- Model accuracy refers to how well a weather prediction model is able to make accurate forecasts of future weather conditions based on past and current data.