The four key risks
Meat & Livestock Australia October 24, 2023
As part of the FWFA project, the Bureau of Meteorology launched five seasonal climate forecasting tools. These tools provided more insight in predictions, especially when considering the possibility of extreme weather events.
The tools are:
- The chance of extremes maps for rainfall and temperature.
- The chance of 3-day tools maps.
- The decile bar charts for rainfall and temperature.
- The timeline graphs for rainfall and temperature.
- The probability of exceedance graphs for rainfall.
Before diving further into the tools, let’s establish some definitions to guide correct interpretation.
The four key weathers extremes of most interest to farmers are heat, cold, wet and dry. Extreme heat refers to defined periods of high temperature and can be accompanied by high humidity. It can affect livestock production, joining, crop growth stage, on farm operations along with increased risk of bushfires in the landscape. Prolonged periods of low temperatures, on the other hand, can affect vulnerable livestock or crop yield and quality. Extended or intense periods of extreme rainfall and wet conditions can disrupt infrastructure at farm-level or supply chain-level. In the case of flooding, livestock and crops can be lost. Finally, prolonged absences of rainfall can lead to periods of drought, often accompanied by scarcity of vital resources, such as feed and water.
Extreme weather events can occur in combination or in isolation. Devastation involved with effects of extreme weather events often outweigh potential benefits, such as enrichment of soil and regeneration of vegetation after fire or flood. Depending on the level of impact, recovery can have significant temporal, economic and social costs. So understanding the likelihood of an extreme weather event can support our preparation, planning and on-farm responses through better decision making.